Indigenous weather forecasting techniques, practised by traditional rainmakers in the Banyore community in western Kenya, are helping scientists in Kenya to develop more reliable systems for predicting the weather. Based on a combination of natural phenomena, the Nganyi clan give advice on optimal planting dates. By noting the migration and behaviour of certain birds, insects and reptiles, and the flowering of certain trees and other plants, the Nganyi predict rain or drought. In addition, by gauging the strength and direction of winds, they are able to forecast whether rain from Lake Victoria is likely or not.
The fact that the Nganyi are reputed for the accuracy of their forecasts has prompted scientists at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) to work with them in a project that will be expanded nationwide. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) is also collaborating with KMD in this project.
Indigenous weather forecasting techniques, practised by traditional rainmakers in the Banyore community in western Kenya, are helping scientists in Kenya to develop more reliable systems for predicting the weather. Based on a combination of natural phenomena, the Nganyi clan give advice on optimal planting dates. By noting the migration and behaviour of certain birds, insects and reptiles, and the flowering of certain trees and other plants, the Nganyi predict rain or drought. In addition, by gauging the strength and direction of winds, they are able to forecast whether rain from Lake Victoria is likely or not.
The fact that the Nganyi are reputed for the accuracy of their forecasts has prompted scientists at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) to work with them in a project that will be expanded nationwide. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) is also collaborating with KMD in this project.
"We wanted to see whether there was any convergence between the traditional knowledge of forecasting and the scientific one," explains Samuel Mwangi, the senior assistant director at KMD. "We have since established that the community's methodology not only works, but employs scientific systems to derive useful weather information critical in warning and preparing the farmers. Therefore we want to see how best to integrate both approaches."
Small scale and large scale
Gilbert Ouma, senior lecturer at the Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, observes that the indigenous forecasting knowledge is confined to a small geographical area. This means that it is quite specific to the needs of subsistence farmers, unlike the conventional weather forecasting technology. "The KMD information is usually only accurate on a large scale, which is not focused on small localities," says Ouma, who is also the climate scientist in charge of ICPAC project. He adds that KMD forecasts are based on about eight zones in Kenya, which are very large areas. "Farmers need information on small tracts of land and the KMD information may not be so useful," he reiterates.
KMD is now incorporating local conditions into their systems, hence making forecasts for different locations more accurate. However, despite the fact that indigenous methods continue to serve the people well, the changing weather patterns, blamed on climate change, are making it increasingly difficult to predict the weather with the degree of certainty of years gone by. Even so, other conventional methods have not faired any better.
The other problem lies with KMD's forecasting format: farmers do not have the capacity to interpret this information properly. To begin with, the English language used to disseminate this information is too technical to be of any use. However through this project, information will be collected and collated into a database, before being transmitted directly to farmers' cell phones in their own language.
Meeting to share information
Traditional forecasters and KMD scientists are meeting every six months to see what either side has to offer the other. The combined information is then conveyed to the farmers to prepare them for any weather eventuality. "The process involves consensus development," says Ouma. "Each side comes to the table with their forecasts and a negotiated final forecast is arrived at, with reasons given. KMD personnel use the indigenous knowledge techniques and vice versa." He adds that the information shared at the meetings is seasonal and the meetings are held just before the start of planting seasons. "We have not started daily forecasts as the cost would be too high and they are really not useful in the livelihoods of most of the vulnerable communities," explains Ouma.
The engagement between the Nganyi and climate scientists took over ten years, an initial project looking at using indigenous knowledge in disaster management and involved six communities, including the Nganyi. Elders were invited to Climate Outlook Forums, where they participated. Now, KMD stations in Kakamega and Kisumu in western Kenya will be used as centres from which the combined information will be sent out in local languages to farmers' cell phones.
Source: New Agriculturist
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